Historically, Republicans have had no problem with primaries. Open seat. Long-term incumbents. The numbers would show that it doesn’t matter. Since 1910, when Michigan began electing its U.S. Senators from the ballot box, as opposed to the Legislature naming the U.S. Senators, Republicans have had contested primaries 64% of the time (25 of 39). It appears 2026 won’t be an exception, if Bernadette Smith and/or Genevieve Peters Scott manages to collect the 15,000 valid signatures needed to get on the Aug. 4 ballot. Presumed frontrunner Mike Rogers, who announced that he has his signatures for renomination Friday, enters any primary with a significant tailwind. In 2024, he won the GOP nomination in a four-candidate field with 63.19 percent of the vote and a margin of victory larger than that of any other Republican in an open primary in Michigan history. His 47.55 percentage point win over former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, Sherry O’Donnell and Sandy Pensler had a lot to do with Donald Trump’s endorsement, and he has that again going into 2026. The landslide wasn’t the largest ever, though. Two other races ended up with more lopsided results, but both were one-on-one affairs. In terms of multi-candidate fields, Rogers’ Republican primary win in 2024 was the largest in state history and the largest margin in a race featuring a non-incumbent. |