- Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 4,000 to 228,000 in the week ending August 26.
- The four-week moving average of initial unemployment insurance claims was practically unchanged from the previous week at 237,500.
- Continuing claims were up by 28,000 to 1.725 million in the week ending August 19 and the four-week moving average rose by slightly more than 8,000 to 1.704 million.
Initial Unemployment Insurance (UI) claims decreased by 4,000 in the week ending August 26, falling to 228,000. The four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out some of the weekly volatility in this data set, was unchanged with the inclusion of the August 26th data set, coming in at 237,500 (versus a revised 237,250 in the week prior). Weekly claims have trended around the 225,000 mark – even before smoothing volatility with the four-week moving average mechanism – since mid-March of this year.
Continuing claims increased by 28,000 to 1.725 million in the week ending August 19. This compares with a tally of ongoing claims of 1.697 million (revised) for the week ending August 12. The resulting four-week moving average of continuing claims was also higher, rising by 8,000 to 1.704 million. There appears to be a localized trough in continuing UI claims at the 1.7 million mark after the data had breached 1.8 million in early April. But despite a rise through July of this year, the continuing claims numbers remain exceptionally low by any historical standard.
Payroll job growth has slowed throughout 2023 but remains positive. The U.S. economy added more than 187,000 jobs in July 2023, and PNC expects a gain of another 150,000 with Friday’s (9/1) release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation Summary report for August. But these gains represent monthly percent gains of only around 1.4% at an annualized pace – which assumes current-month activity were to continue for a 12-month span. This is down from the 2% mark that closed out 2022 and the near-3% annualized gains to start last year. The U.S. labor market continues to advance but is now doing so with gains that are much more consistent with the ongoing anecdotal talk of labor and skills shortages and average wage growth that is now trending above topline CPI inflation.
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is one of the largest diversified financial services institutions in the United States, organized around its customers and communities for strong relationships and local delivery of retail and business banking including a full range of lending products; specialized services for corporations and government entities, including corporate banking, real estate finance, and asset-based lending; wealth management and asset management. For information about PNC, visit www.pnc.com.
