Are Stabilizing Near 250K/Week

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 2,000 to 250,000 in the week ending August 13 from a downward revised 252,000 in the week ending August 6. The four-week moving average of initial claims, which smooths out some of the volatility, edged down by 3,000 to 247,000 in the week ending August 13 from a downward revised 250,000 in the previous week. It hit a low of 172K in early April. The insured unemployment rate held steady at a very low 1.0 percent in the week ending August 6.                                                       

The total number of people receiving benefits under regular state unemployment insurance programs (continuing claims) rose by 7,000 to 1.437 million in the week ending August 6. The four-week moving average of continuing claims jumped by 13,000 to 1.413 million. Continuing claims have moved higher in the past twelve weeks but are still close to decades-long lows as unemployed workers leave the program’s rolls, either because their benefits have expired or because they have quickly found a new job. 

The labor market remains in good shape as the summer quarter progresses as evidenced by the strong 528K rise in July payroll jobs. The recent rise in initial claims to 247K in the four weeks ending August 13 (from a low of 172K in early-April), and the rise in continuing claims to 1.413 million in the four weeks ending August 6 (from a low of 1.314 million in early June) are a clear sign that layoffs are happening at a growing number of companies and the unemployment rate is close to a low at 3.5 percent, matching its pre-pandemic low point.

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