Signal a Continuing “Hot” Job Market
Initial unemployment claims fell by 4,000 to 222,000 in the week ending November 12. The 4-week moving average of initial claims, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, rose by 2,000 to 221,000 ending the same week. This low level of initial claims indicates that few companies are laying-off workers with demand still strong and the difficulty of hiring new workers.
Recent announcements of large layoffs by a growing number of tech companies will show up in higher unemployment claims over the next several months. A rise in weekly initial claims to over 250,000 will likely be the result, after we get past the temporary rise in holiday hiring, showing some cooling-off in the” hot” labor market in early 2023.
The total number of unemployed workers collecting unemployment payments, referred to as continuing claims, rose by 13,000 to 1.507 million in the week ending November 5, and the 4-week moving average rose by 31,000 to 1.481 million ending in the same week.
Continuing claims have moved up over the past five weeks but remain fairly low indicating that workers who get laid-off can quickly find another job in the still-tight job market. The insured unemployment rate held steady at a very low 1.0% in the week ending November 5.
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