to Lowest Level since February 1970

• Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly to 180,000 in the week ending April 23.
• Continuing claims fell to 1.408 million in the week ending April 16, the lowest since early February 1970.   
• The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.0 percent in the week ending April 16.
• The labor market remains very strong as the spring quarter begins.
  

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to a near multi-decades low of 180,00 in the week ending April 23, down from 185,000 the previous week. The four-week moving average of initial claims, which smooths out some of the volatility, edged up to 180,000 in the week ending April 23. Initial claims for unemployment rose in early 2022 to near 300,000 as the omicron variant hit the labor market, but more recently have fallen below the 200,000 per week where initial claims stood before the pandemic. The insured unemployment rate held steady a 1.0 percent in the week ending April 16.                                                                          

The total number of people receiving benefits under regular state unemployment insurance programs (continuing claims) fell by 1,000 in the week ending April 16 to 1.408 million from 1.409 million the previous week. This is the lowest number since February 1970! The four-week moving average of continuing claims fell to 1.455 million from 1.480 million the previous week. Continuing claims are at decades-long lows as unemployed workers leave the program’s rolls, either because their benefits have expired or because they have quickly found a new job. After peaking at more than 23 million in May 2020, state continuing claims have now moved to their lowest levels since the early 1970s.

The labor market remains in excellent shape as the spring quarter begins. PNC expects a payroll job rise of close to 450,000 in April and a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5 percent. Demand for labor is very strong, and with the labor force smaller than it was before the pandemic, firms are competing for workers and bidding up wages. Employment increased by an average of 562,000 per month in the first quarter, well above the pre-pandemic pace of around 150,000 per month, despite the one-off decline in real GDP. We expect a moderate rebound in real GDP this quarter.

The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is one of the largest diversified financial services institutions in the United States, organized around its customers and communities for strong relationships and local delivery of retail and business banking including a full range of lending products; specialized services for corporations and government entities, including corporate banking, real estate finance and asset-based lending; wealth management and asset management. For information about PNC, visit www.pnc.com.