- Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 13,000 to 198,000 in the week ending October 14, the first reading below 200K since mid-January 2023. The four-week moving average of initial unemployment insurance claims dipped by 1,000 to 206,000.
- Continuing claims jumped by 29,000 to 1.734 million in the week ending October 7 and the four-week moving average jumped by 19,000 to 1.694 million.
Initial Unemployment Insurance (UI) claims fell by 13,000 to 198,000 in the week ending October 14. This is the lowest level since mid-January 2023. The four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out some of the weekly volatility in this data, fell by 1,000 to 206,000, the lowest level since early-February.
Continuing claims jumped by 29,000 to 1.734 million in the week ending October 7 and the four-week moving average of continuing claims rose by 19,000 to 1.694 million. The insured unemployment was 1.2 percent in the week ending October 7 for the second straight week.
Initial and continuing claims numbers remain exceptionally low by any historical standard. This reflects the fact that laid-off workers continue to quickly find new jobs in the tight job market. The U.S. labor market continues to advance but is now doing so with gains that are much more consistent with the ongoing anecdotal talk of labor and skills shortages and average wage growth that is now trending above a slower rise in CPI inflation.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that there is better balance in the demand and supply of workers but that was before the large 336K rise in payroll jobs (and upward revisions to July and August) that moved the third quarter average rise up to 266K/month. The income increases from more workers earning higher wages is what supported the strong rise in consumer spending and real GDP growth last quarter.
