23 Million Americans Have Filed for UI Over Past Month

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 4.427 million in the week ending April 18, down from 5.245 million the previous week (revised lower by 8,000). Claims peaked at 6.867 million the week ending the week ending on March 28. But claims remain extraordinarily high as the coronavirus and restrictions on movement have led to unprecedented levels of job losses.Over the last four weeks claims have totaled 23.144 million, or an average of 5.786 million, up 280,000 from the week ending April 11. Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, the previous high for the four-week moving average for claims was 674,250 in the fall of 1982, so claims are now running at almost nine times that pace.

According to comments from state officials included in the report, layoffs are slowing in a variety of industries, but especially in leisure/hospitality (restaurants and hotels) and retail.

Initial claims have slowed over the past few weeks, but are running at levels that would have been unimaginable earlier this year. Heading into the crisis claims were about 210,000-220,000 per week, so they have increased about twenty-five fold over a couple of months.

The April jobs report, to be released Friday May 8, will be historically bad. Although not all of the claim filings will result in measured unemployment, job losses from the survey of employers will be well above 10 million, by far the highest number on record. And the unemployment rate is set to jump above 10 percent, above the high during the Great Recession a decade ago.

The Viral Recession is taking a huge toll on the job market and the U.S. economy. PNC estimates that the decline in GDP in the first half of 2010 will be at least double that during the Great Recession, in a much shorter timeframe (two quarters compared to six). Assuming restrictions on movement are gradually lifted over the next few months, the economy is likely to rebound in the second half of 2020 and in 2021, thanks to fiscal stimulus efforts and very low interest rates. The job market should start to recover later this year, although it will take a couple of years for employment to return to its early 2020 high.