Still More than 12 Million Layoffs Over Past Four Weeks

After peaking in late March, initial claims for unemployment insurance continue to fall. Claims were 2.438 million in the week ending May 16, down from 2.687 million in the week ending May 9 (revised lower from 2.981 million). Claims hit an all-time high of 6.867 million in the week ending March 28, and have fallen steadily for the next seven weeks, down almost two-thirds from their peak.

While the steady decline in claims is good news, the labor market is still in terrible shape. In early March, before states put restrictions on movement, claims were running at a pace of 200,000 to 220,000 per week, so initial claims are still running at more than ten times that pace. And before the Viral Recession, the previous all-time high for claims was about 700,000 in 1982.

Initial claims have totaled about 12 million over the past four weeks, indicating that roughly that many people have lost their jobs over that period. That’s down from more than 23 million the previous four weeks (late March through mid-April).

Continuing claims-the total number of people getting unemployment benefits-was 25.1 million in the week ending May 9, up 2.5 million from the previous week. This indicates that most of the people who have lost their jobs in recent weeks are not being rehired.

The April jobs report was by far the worst on record, with a decline in employment of 20.5 million. The slowing in claims since then means the May report will also be terrible, with job losses once again in the millions, but not quite as awful as April. The unemployment rate, which jumped to 14.7 percent in April, by far both the highest rate since the Great Depression and the largest one-month increase in the rate (10.3 percentage points), will hit at least 20 percent in May.

Initial claims fell in most states the week ending May 16, but claims did rise in a few big states, including Florida, Georgia, and New York.