Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by almost 9 percent in the week ending October 17, to 757,000. Initial claims, which had stabilized at around 800,000 per week in August and September, appear to have moved slightly lower in October, an indication that layoffs may be slowing. Still, weekly initial claims are still far above the 200,000 per week level in early 2020, before the pandemic. But they are far below the peak of more than 6 million in early April, as businesses closed due to the pandemic.
After seasonal adjustment initial claims were 787,000 in the week ending October 17, down almost 7 percent from the previous week.
This morning’s report includes updated numbers for California, including revisions for prior weeks. The state had not reported initial claims over the previous two weeks to update its computer systems, and those numbers were instead estimated.
Continuing claims under regular state unemployment insurance programs fell 11 percent in the week ending October 10, to 7.992 million. Continuing claims peaked at almost 23 million in early May, and have steadily declined since then as many of the unemployed have returned to work. More recently, continuing claims have fallen as UI recipients have used up their 26 weeks of benefits under their regular state program and have moved to the Pandemic Emergency UC program.
After seasonal adjustment continuing claims were down 11 percent in the week ending October 10, to 8.373 million.
There were a total of 23.150 million people receiving some form of unemployment assistance in the week ending October 3, including the PEUC and other special programs created in the wake of the pandemic. This was down 4 percent from the previous week; these numbers are not seasonally adjusted. Total claims peaked at 32.430 million in June, and have gradually declined since then, but are still extremely high. In early 2020 about 2 million people were receiving some form of unemployment.
The labor market continues to recover, but unemployment remains very high. Now that the updated data from California are available, it appears that initial claims have moved lower in recent weeks, but they remain far above their pre-pandemic levels. Recent layoff announcements from Disney, Shell, and the airlines are proof that the labor market is not out of the woods yet. Continuing claims are falling steadily, but that is more because of the expiration of benefits for some workers than a more rapid transition from unemployed to employed. The decline in total claims is slower; some of the unemployed are being rehired, but it is still going to take years for the labor market to fully recover from the Viral Recession.
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