, But Has Missed Big Lately
According to the ADP National Employment Report, based on data from the payroll-processing firm, the private sector added just 365,000 jobs in October, down from gains of 753,000 in September and 482,000 in August. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the government’s official jobs report on Friday. PNC expects an increase in employment of 900,000 over the month, including job gains of 1.2 million in the private sector.
Since the pandemic struck in early 2020 the ADP employment report and BLS monthly employment situation report have varied widely. In August ADP private-sector employment growth was more than 900,000 below the BLS reading, while in September ADP was 88,000 above the BLS (all before revisions). Therefore, the predictive power of the ADP report right now is questionable.
According to the ADP report goods-producing industries added just 17,000 jobs in October, while private service-providing industries added 348,000. Firms with fewer than 50 employees added 114,000 jobs over the month, while those with 50 to 499 employees added 135,000 jobs. The largest firms added 116,000 jobs.
The labor market continues to recover from the Viral Recession, but the pace of job gains has slowed dramatically from mid-year, when business re-openings powered monthly employment growth in the millions. Although the ADP report and the monthly BLS report have diverged widely in recent months, both tell the story of solid job growth, but far below the pace in the summer. With firms adjusting to shifts in demand and the reality that the coronavirus is not under control, even with solid job growth it will take a few years for employment to return to its pre-pandemic peak.
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is one of the largest diversified financial services institutions in the United States, organized around its customers and communities for strong relationships and local delivery of retail and business banking including a full range of lending products; specialized services for corporations and government entities, including corporate banking, real estate finance and asset-based lending; wealth management and asset management. For information about PNC, visit www.pnc.com.
