A new Alignable report reveals growing unease among small business owners: 60% believe a recession is on the horizon — a number that jumps to 70% in Canada.
This data, collected from 8,083 small business owners between 3/13/25 and 4/24/25, spotlights how inflation, instability, and new tariffs are hitting entrepreneurs hard right now.
Key findings:
- 73% say they’re earning less than they were one year ago — up 5 points from early March.
- 59% say tariffs are making them less optimistic about 2025 — a 9-point spike.
- 29% rank inflation as their No. 1 concern.
State and industry highlights:
More than half of small business owners in 34 U.S. states now expect a recession, including NY, CA, IL, NJ, WA, OR, MN, PA, TX, MD, NC, and MA.
Industries hit hardest include restaurants (67%), retailers (65%), and manufacturers (64%) — all sectors sensitive to rising costs and shifting consumer habits.
Why it matters:
As economic uncertainty mounts, small business owners — the backbone of the U.S. economy — are flashing serious warning signs that could ripple into broader markets.
