NEW STATEWIDE POLL: PERCEPTION-REALITY GAPS POINT TO ‘ERA OF MISINFORMATION’ ACROSS ECONOMY, EDUCATION, AND DEMOCRACY

At the 2024 Mackinac Policy Conference, the Detroit Regional Chamber shares what’s at stake for businesses amid pervasive misinformation 

DETROIT (May 28, 2024) – Today, the Detroit Regional Chamber released findings from its latest statewide poll of 600 registered Michigan voters in partnership with the Glengariff Group, Inc. The poll was conducted between May 1-5, 2024.

“The theme of the 2024 Mackinac Policy Conference is ‘Bridging the Future Together’, a sentiment the business community shares. But in order to do anything together, Michiganders must start from a common frame of reference,” said Sandy K. Baruah, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Chamber. “The Chamber’s latest polling shows deep gaps in the understanding of basic elements of our society including the state of our economy and the cost of an education. Additionally, our polling uncovered troubling views of the value of democracy. Businesses, and those employed by them, can only succeed in an environment of stability. Our polling shows this stability is beginning to fray.” 

ECONOMY: PERCEPTIONS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE ECONOMY SHOW TROUBLING DISCONNECT FROM THE FACTS

This perception-reality disconnect is an extension of lingering variance between what voters think of general economic conditions versus their own circumstances – a prominent theme spanning much of the Chamber’s polling in recent years. The level of misinformation contributing to these divergent perspectives poses significant challenges to fostering unified approaches to further develop the economy and continue economic progress. Click for full data. 

Chamber Perspective   In the face of misinformation, the state and Region’s economic prosperity depends on business leaders’ commitment to common understanding. The misguided perceptions illustrated in this data are harmful to the state’s economic progress, especially as the state faces population stagnation and ongoing challenges to its competitiveness position. It is more important than ever for business leaders to ensure the communities they serve are informed of what is actually happening economically and that policymakers are making fact-based decisions that support economic growth.   The trend of Michigan voters expressing optimism about their personal economic situations while holding negative views of the economy overall continues to grow. While voters’ sour mood about overall economic conditions is no doubt related to the run-up in prices in 2022 and 2023, the lack of acknowledgment of overall positive economic conditions – including moderating inflation – today is troubling and makes it more difficult for public policy and business leaders to plan for the future, including making investment decisions.

 

The Disconnect
Perception	Reality
Consumer confidence is lower than during the Great Recession.   61% of respondents see the economy weakening or in recession.   Michigan voters continue to believe the state’s economy is on the wrong track, by a margin of 40% right track to 52% wrong track.   Only 28% of respondents believe inflation has been 4% for the past year. Nearly a quarter think inflation is running above 8%.	Key economic indicators show promising progress: U.S. GDP increased 3.4% in Q4 2023 Michigan’s unemployment is at a steady low of 3.9% as of March 2024 U.S. stocks were up 26% in 2023   The number of voters doing better or the same economically than before the COVID-19 pandemic holds steady at 60%.   Voters are secure in their jobs and the job market: Nearly 85% of employed voters are not concerned about losing their jobs. More than 75% of voters have not had trouble finding a good-paying job. 63% of voters agree good jobs are available.   Inflation is 3.4% as of April 2024.

 

EDUCATION: VOTERS BELIEVE POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION COSTS MORE THAN IT DOES, INFORMING NEGATIVE PERCEPTIONS OF WHETHER COLLEGE IS WORTH IT

Many believe college degrees are much more expensive than they really are. They also think students are graduating with much more debt than they really are. More troubling, yet, is the misconceptions around how valuable a college degree is for economic success. Despite 42% of voters identifying financial stability as a key measure of success, 23% do not think a college education – which data proves leads to significantly higher lifetime earnings and dramatically lower chances for unemployment – is important. This helps underscore a persistent challenge that could continue to hinder the state’s competitiveness and economic prosperity. Click for full data. 

Chamber Perspective Voters’ thoughts about the cost – and value – of postsecondary education reinforce the “era of misinformation” theme present throughout this survey. More challenging than the misinformation itself is that no loud voices are countering the perception that college is not worth the cost with facts, which allows these false perceptions to take hold. Business leaders and educational institutions must step up efforts to share correct information to show people that postsecondary education – an essential element of personal and economic prosperity – is more accessible and worthwhile than they think. In Michigan, this will help establish the culture of education and higher skills necessary for the 21st century economy and embodied in the Chamber’s support for a “K through 12 + 2” ethos of education – stressing the importance of formalized education beyond high school for all.  These findings also reinforce why the Chamber established the goal of 60% of adults having a postsecondary credential by 2030, which has been adopted by the State.

 

The Disconnect
Perception	Reality
58% of respondents believe the student loan debt for the average student graduating from Wayne State University is above $50,000.   Nearly one-third of respondents think the average cost of a four-year degree at universities like Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Northern Michigan is over $100,000.   Half of respondents do not think a four-year college degree is worth the money. 23% of respondents do not think a college education is important to making a living wage to support a family.   19% of respondents say a four-year degree is the minimum level of education needed to make a living wage to support a family.	Almost half of graduating Wayne State University students carry no debt, and those with debt carry less than $25,000. State and federal assistance cover most tuition fees for eligible students at most community and public colleges.   The average cost of public university tuition in Michigan is about $16,000 per year.   That’s approximately $64,000 for four years before any aid is applied. (Michigan Association of State Universities) Low- to moderate-income students are typically eligible for federal Pell grants and the new Michigan Achievement Scholarship, which together are worth close to $13,000. The Detroit Region also boasts many local universities like Oakland University and Wayne State University, as well as many community colleges, where students can commute and save on room and board expenses.   85% of jobs requiring a bachelor’s degree can support a family of three compared to only 25% of jobs that require less than a college degree. (Detroit Regional Chamber 2023 State of Education and Talent Report)   College graduates earn 84% more ($1.2 million) over their careers than their high school-only counterparts. (Association of Public and Land Grant Universities)   37 of the top 50 jobs in Michigan require a bachelor’s degree or higher. (State of Michigan)

 

DEMOCRACY: ERODING CONFIDENCE IN DEMOCRACY THREATENS STABILITY BUSINESSES NEED TO THRIVE

In this election year, the Chamber drew special attention to voters’ thoughts on the strength of democracy with this poll. The results are jarring. Amid drastic polarization on nearly every economic and societal issue, there is a concerning consensus in overall lack of commitment to and confidence in democratic systems. Click for full data.

Chamber Perspective   A contentious political climate rooted in polarization creates volatility that is harmful to business. A healthy democracy anchored by agreed-upon facts is a critical element for a prosperous and peaceful society. This poll, however, indicates we are heading into precarious territory. The Chamber has always supported the importance of democratic norms and American institutions and served as the leading business voice in reinforcing the validity of the 2020 election and support for voting rights and ballot access as these democratic principles are essential to the stable environment businesses need to succeed.

 

Key Findings

68% of respondents are dissatisfied with the condition of democracy in the United States, with nearly half being very dissatisfied.   Only 67% of respondents agree that democracy is the best form of government. Only 49% strongly agree democracy is the best form of government.   17% of respondents believe it does not matter if our government is a democracy. Centrist voters were far more likely to say our form of government did not matter than either base Republicans or base Democrats. “Other political figures” are the biggest threat to democracy according to voters. By party affiliation: Democrats – 26.3% Trump and the GOP, 10.5% corrupt politicians Independents – 7.8% civil unrest, 6.3% Trump and the GOP, 6.3% corrupt politicians Republicans – 28.9% Biden and the Democrats, 11.9% corrupt politicians, 9.4% illegal immigration   86% of respondents say political violence is a threat to American democracy. However, 5% say violence is justified if the candidate for president they support loses the 2024 election after all votes are counted fairly.

  

ECONOMY: BY THE NUMBERS

 

Michigan voters continue to believe the state’s economy is on the wrong track by a margin of 39% right track to 52% wrong track.

 

            Survey                                   Right              Wrong

            May 2022                               31.7%             50.1%

            November 2022                    41.0%             48.9%

            February 2023                       38.9%             48.1%

            May 2023                               37.0%             46.5%

            November 2023                    36.1%             50.2%

            May 2024                               39.2%             51.7%

 

The 51.7% who believe the economy is on the wrong track were asked why. 53.8% of these respondents cited inflation, the cost of goods, or the inability to earn enough. 

The 53.8% figure citing inflation and cost of living concerns has been statistically consistent in every survey in which the Chamber has asked this question, dating back to December 2022. 

• 42.9% – Inflation/cost of goods
• 14.4% – Anti-Biden/anti-Democrats
• 10.6% – Taxes and government spending
• 8.3% – No good jobs/unemployment
• 5.8% – Cost of gas prices
• 5.1% – Wages are too low/not paying enough           

Those doing better or the same economically as before the COVID-19 pandemic holds steady near 60%.

• 38.1% are doing worse
• 26.2% are doing better
• 33.6% are doing about the same 

When asked in an open-ended question why they are doing worse, 76% of these respondents gave an answer citing high costs and inflation. Strong Republican voters continue to drive the number that say they are doing worse.  

 

            Party Affiliation                   Better             Worse               Same

            Strong Dem.                          41.4%             18.4%             39.5%

            Lean Dem.                             33.8%             20.6%             42.6%

            Independent                          25.0%             37.5%             33.6%

            Lean Rep.                              22.8%             47.4%             24.6%

            Strong Rep.                           10.1%             63.5%             25.2% 

 

Nearly 85% of employed voters are not concerned about losing their jobs. 

• 84.7% of employed voters are not concerned about losing their jobs
• 74.4% are not concerned at all about losing their current job, an increase of 12 percentage points since the November 2023 survey
• Only 14% of voters are concerned about their job security, down from 21% in November 2023

More than 75% of voters have not had trouble finding a good-paying job. 

• Only 21.4% of respondents say they have had trouble finding a good-paying job
• 76.8% say they have not had trouble finding a good-paying job   

63% of voters agree good jobs are available. 

Respondents were asked if there were good-paying jobs available for anyone that wants to work. The results are statistically consistent with November 2023. 

• 62.7% of voters say good jobs are available
• 20.7% of voters say good jobs are not available 

Compared to other issues with significant partisan differences, these results show minimal variation by party affiliation with Democrats at 64%, Independents at 66%, and Republicans at 59%. 

Age continues to be a key difference on this question. 18-29-year-old voters are less likely than older voters to say good jobs are available.           

Age                 Available       Not Available

18-29              49.4%             30.4%

30-39              57.3%             27.4%

40-49              68.9%             16.8%

50-64              65.3%             20.4%

65+                 67.3%             11.2%

 

Nearly a quarter of voters believe inflation is more than 8% when asked what the rate of inflation was over the past year. It is 3.4% as of April 2024.

• 4.5% say less than 2%
• 23.8% say between 2% and 4%
• 22.5% say between 4% and 6%
• 13.2% say between 6% and 8%
• 23.5% say more than 8%
• 12.4% of voters simply do not know 

Only 28.3% believe inflation is running below 4%. 

By political affiliation:

 

            Party Affiliation                   Less than 4%             4-6%              More than 6%

            Strong Dem.                          40.1%                         21.7%             23.1%

            Lean Dem.                             29.4%                         29.4%            27.9%

            Independent                          27.3%                         22.7%            36.7%

            Lean Rep.                              15.8%                         26.3%             52.6%

            Strong Rep.                           20.2%                         21.4%             49.0% 

Nearly 70% of voters believe wages have grown slower than inflation over the past year.           

• 67.5% believe wages have grown slower than inflation over the past year
• 17.