Still Riding New Orders Momentum

• The topline ISM Services PMI came in at 52.6 for February 2024
• The Business Activity component of the ISM Services PMI jumped to 57.4, strongest since September 2023
• Services industries’ pricing trends backed down from January’s spike, still high at 58.6 for February 2024
• Services industry hiring couldn’t maintain January’s bounce, back below breakeven at 48.0 for February 2024

With Small Increases in After-Tax Income, Consumer Spending

•                 Inflation accelerated in January on a month-to-month basis, both core and overall. But both types of inflation slowed a on year-over-year basis.

•                 There was a big jump in personal income, but that was largely offset by a big increase in tax payments. Adjusted for inflation after-tax income was flat.

and Continuing Claims Jumped by 45,000

•                 Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 13,000 to 214,000 in the week ending February 24. The four-week moving average declined modestly to 213,000.

•                 Continuing claims jumped by 45,000 to 1.905 million in the week ending February 17 and the four-week moving average rose by 3,000 to 1.88 million.

PNC’s latest semi-annual survey of small- and mid-sized businesses, which concluded Feb. 2, shows that business owner optimism about economic conditions over the next six months has reached a 22-year high amid lessening fears of a recession.  

If you would like more detailed analysis and how this data relates to the improving, economy, I would be pleased to provide you with additional results and arrange for you to speak with a PNC economist.

• Existing home sales rose 3.1% in January 2024 from December, but were down 1.7% over the year.
• Existing home sales were flat in the Northeast and up in the other three regions over the month. On a year-ago basis, sales were up in the West and down in the other three regions.
• The median sales price was up 5% in January from a year earlier.
• Inventories rose slightly in January.
• Existing home sales will pick back over the course of 2024 with easing mortgage rates and more inventory.

•                 Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 12,000 to 201,000 in the week ending February 17. The four-week moving average declined modestly to 215,000.

•                 Continuing claims dropped by 27,000 to 1.862 million in the week ending February 10 but the four-week moving average rose by 9,000 to 1.878 million.