Here is a link to PNC’s December National Economic Outlook.
And here are some notes from PNC Chief Economist Gus Faucher:
- Job growth remains strong at the end of 2022, and GDP bounced back in the third quarter after falling in the first half of 2022.
- Although inflation has slowed in recent months, it remains far above the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective. The Fed continues to raise interest rates to slow economic growth and bring down inflation.
- Given the rapid increase in interest rates this year, the most likely outcome for the U.S. economy in 2023 is recession. The yield curve has inverted in recent months; this is a very reliable recession indicator.
- The recession should be mild given the current strengths in the labor market, consumer balance sheets, and the banking system. Low housing inventories are another positive.
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is one of the largest diversified financial services institutions in the United States, organized around its customers and communities for strong relationships and local delivery of retail and business banking including a full range of lending products; specialized services for corporations and government entities, including corporate banking, real estate finance and asset-based lending; wealth management and asset management. For information about PNC, visit www.pnc.com.
