• First-time jobless claims fell unexpectedly fell to 227,000 for the week ending October 19 from an upwardly revised 242,000 in the previous week.
• The four-week moving average rose by 2,000 to 238,500 and is up sharply from 210,500 a year ago; the insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3% for the week ending October 12 from 1.2% in the prior week and 1.2% in the same week one year earlier.
• Continuing claims increased by 28,000 to 1.897 million for the week ending October 12 and are sharply higher relative to a year earlier; the four-week moving average increased from a week earlier and a year ago, suggesting it is taking jobless workers longer to find a new job.
• PNC expects job gains to moderate for the balance of this year and into the first half of 2025 and the unemployment rate to rise to around 4.5% from the current rate of 4.1%.    

Initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 for the week ending October 19 from an upwardly revised 242,000 in the previous week (was 241,000), bucking expectations for a slight increase to 245,000. There is still no visible impact from Hurricane Milton on the labor market. Initial claims are up marginally from 213,000 in the same week one year earlier but still at a low level. The four-week moving average – which irons out volatility in the weekly data – rose by 2,000 to 238,500 and is up sharply from 210,500 a year ago, suggesting the labor market is not as tight as it was last year. The insured unemployment rate increased to 1.3% for the week ending October 12 from 1.2% in the prior week and 1.2% in the same week one year earlier. 

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased by 28,000 to 1.897 million for the week ending October 12. Continuing claims are sharply higher compared to a year earlier (1.810 million). Moreover, the four-week moving average increased by 17,500 to 1.861 million and is up from 1.802 million a year earlier, implying it is taking unemployed workers longer to find a new job.    

The U.S. labor market continues to soften against a backdrop of still-restrictive monetary policy. Job gains have slowed and the unemployment rate has risen by 70 basis points from 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.1% in September 2024. PNC expects a further cooling in the labor market as economic growth moderates, with average job gains of around 150,000 a month in the final quarter of this year and about 100,000 per month in the first half of 2025. Consequently, the unemployment rate will rise to around 4.5% by mid-year 2025 and then drift slightly lower in 2026 as job growth accelerates in concert with lower interest rates.

The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is one of the largest diversified financial services institutions in the United States, organized around its customers and communities for strong relationships and local delivery of retail and business banking including a full range of lending products; specialized services for corporations and government entities, including corporate banking, real estate finance and asset-based lending; wealth management and asset management. For information about PNC, visit www.pnc.com.