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DTMB | Michigan Regional Jobless Rates Decrease in November

Michigan Business Network
December 29, 2021 2:00 PM

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LANSING, Mich. – Not seasonally adjusted jobless rates moved down in 14 of Michigan’s 17 major labor market areas between October and November, according to data released today by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget (see technical note at the end of this release).

“Employment rose in most regional labor markets in November,” said Wayne Rourke, associate director of the Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives. “However, seasonal employment reductions occurred in the Northeast and Northwest Lower Michigan regions and the Upper Peninsula.”  

Regional unemployment rate decreases ranged from 0.3 to 0.7 percentage points in November. Seasonal rate increases were recorded in the Upper Peninsula and Northeast Lower Michigan region. The jobless rate was unchanged in the Northwest Lower Michigan region during November.

Regional unemployment rates fall over year

All 17 Michigan regions exhibited jobless rate reductions over the year, with a median decrease of 1.3 percentage points.  

November regional jobless rates remained above pre-pandemic November 2019 levels. All 17 labor market areas had jobless rate increases over the past two years, with a median advance of 1.5 percentage points.  

Employment up over month, down since pre-pandemic levels

Fourteen labor market areas had employment advances over the month. Increases ranged from 0.4 to 2.1 percent, with a median addition of 1.2 percent. The Northeast and Northwest Lower Michigan regions and the Upper Peninsula all recorded seasonal employment declines in November.

All 17 Michigan regions registered employment levels below pre-pandemic November 2019 totals, with a median decrease of 6.8 percent over the two-year period.

Labor force levels increase over month, decrease over year

Fourteen Michigan regions recorded workforce gains between October and November, with a median advance of 0.7 percent. The Northeast and Northwest Lower Michigan regions and the Upper Peninsula all had seasonal labor force decreases over the month.

All 17 labor market areas recorded workforce cuts since November 2020.

Regional nonfarm jobs up slightly in November

According to the monthly survey of employers, not seasonally adjusted Michigan nonfarm jobs edged up by 9,000, or 0.2 percent, during November, resulting in a payroll job total of 4,277,000. Employment rose in November in most major industries. The sectors with the largest seasonal job reductions over the month included leisure and hospitality (-11,000) and construction (-5,000).

Ten metro areas added payroll jobs over the month with a median advance of 0.5 percent. Nonfarm jobs inched down in the Monroe, Niles, and Bay City regions and remained unchanged in the Muskegon metro area.

Statewide nonfarm employment moved up by 150,000, or 3.6 percent, over the year. Thirteen metro areas recorded payroll job additions since November 2020, with a median gain of 3.4 percent.

County unemployment rates decline over month and year

Fifty-five Michigan counties exhibited jobless rate decreases over the month. Eighty-one counties displayed unemployment rate drops over the year.  

For more detailed information, including data tables, view the full release.

Note: Data in this release is not seasonally adjusted. As a result, employment and unemployment trends may differ from previously released Michigan seasonally adjusted data.

A breakdown of not seasonally adjusted November workforce estimates for Michigan and its 17 major labor market areas follows, along with a ranking of county jobless rates for November.

Technical note: Data revision causing temporary series break in September 2021

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for examining the inputs to the statistical model that produces the Michigan monthly employment and unemployment estimates. Due to the impact of the pandemic on employment, BLS implemented a revised method of examining models for outliers on a monthly basis, as opposed to their usual practice of designating outliers annually. This involved implementing level shifts monthly in response to outliers in the Current Population Survey data, where appropriate. These level shifts are designed to preserve movements in the published estimates that the models otherwise would have discounted.

BLS implemented a level shift due to an outlier identified in the Current Population Survey input to the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn metro area unemployment model in January 2021. This adjustment produced some distortions in the benchmarking factors used for Michigan, the Detroit metro area, and the Balance of Michigan. To reduce these distortions, BLS has modified this outlier intervention with the publication of September through November 2021 estimates. This modification resulted in estimates that better reflect the model inputs for the most recent two months and produced a revised September not seasonally adjusted Michigan unemployment rate of 5.5 percent. This also resulted in an upward revision in September unemployment rates for all Michigan metro areas, regions, and counties. Data corrections for January - August 2021 will be addressed during the usual annual revision process at the end of 2021. The revised estimates will be published in March 2022.

The revised estimates for September 2021 and October 2021, and the newly published November 2021 data can be fully compared with data for all months of 2020 and prior years. However, the data for September through November 2021 should not be compared with previously released estimates for January - August 2021 until all months of 2021 are revised in March 2022.

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