This year’s extended holiday forecast exceeds pre-pandemic numbers, sets new record

DEARBORN, Mich., (November 18, 2024) — AAA expects record-setting travel numbers for Thanksgiving. Nearly 2.6 million Michigan residents are forecast to travel 50 miles or more for the holiday. That’s an all-time high for Thanksgiving and 65,000 more travelers than last year.

National travel numbers are also expected to set new records with an estimated 79.9 million travelers. The 2% growth equates to 1.7 million more people than the previous record set last year, and 2 million more than in 2019.

These record-setting traveler numbers are being driven by economic growth, declining inflation, and strong income gains, which is expected to boost consumer spending by 4.6% compared to this time last year.

“We expect to see record travel numbers across the board,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “With more people taking to the roads, skies, rails, and sea; travelers should expect congested roads and longer lines at transportation terminals. AAA encourages travelers to develop their plan now and consider travel insurance, which provides compensation for flight cancellations, delays, and lost luggage.”

In effort to better capture the flow of holiday travelers, AAA expanded the number of days in the Thanksgiving holiday travel period. Instead of Wednesday-Sunday, this year’s Thanksgiving holiday travel period is seven days, stretching from Tuesday, November 26 to Monday, December 2. Additionally, we expanded our historical travel numbers to provide an apples-to-apples comparison.

Thanksgiving Travelers by Mode

Automobile travel will set new records nationwide and in Michigan. AAA projects nearly 2.3 million Michiganders will take a road trip over Thanksgiving – that’s 50,000 more travelers than the previous record set last year.

Gas prices are slightly lower this Thanksgiving season compared to 2023. The national average last Thanksgiving Day was $3.26. The state average was $3.19. Currently, Michigan drivers are finding an average price of $3.13. Visit GasPrices.AAA.com to view national, state, and regional gas price averages.

Falling oil prices this autumn may help push the national average below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2021, and that could happen before drivers hit the road for Thanksgiving. Regionally, drivers east of the Rockies will find gas between $2.25 to $2.50 a gallon in more than a dozen states.

AAA car rental partner Hertz says Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, and Phoenix are the cities displaying the highest rental demand for the Thanksgiving holiday. The busiest car pick-up day is expected to be the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and the busiest rental return days will be the Monday and Tuesday after the holiday.

Thanksgiving air travel is also expected to set a new record. Nationally, AAA projects 5.84 million people will fly domestically this holiday. That’s an increase of 2% compared to last year and a nearly 11% increase over 2019.  

Domestic airfares are up 3% this year, according to AAA booking data, while the number of bookings are similar to last year. International flight bookings are up 23% compared to last Thanksgiving, in part because the cost to fly internationally is down 5%.

Other modes of transportation increased 9% from last year. Nationally, nearly 2.3 million people are expected to travel by various transportation methods including buses, cruises, and trains. This category is seeing an 18% jump over 2019, in large part due to the popularity of cruising.

“The demand for cruises has been red-hot this year,” Haas continued. “Domestic and international cruise bookings are up 20% compared to last Thanksgiving. As new ocean and river cruising options have been introduced, more travelers are discovering the value and joy of cruising.”

Best/Worst Times to Drive

According to INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights:

• The worst times to travel by car over Thanksgiving are Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.
• The best time to hit the road is Thanksgiving Day itself when interstates and highways are typically clear.
• Drivers returning home on Sunday should leave early in the morning, and those coming back on Monday should expect a mix of travelers and work commuters on the road.

“With a record number of travelers expected to be on the road, drivers should follow traffic apps and local news alerts to avoid major delays,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “This is especially important for drivers in metropolitan areas like Boston, New York, LA, Seattle, and Washington, DC, where traffic is expected to be more than double what it typically is on a normal day.”

Please note that the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located.

For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.

SOURCE: INRIX

AAA’s Top Thanksgiving Destinations

The common theme among the top 10 domestic destinations is warm weather! Four Florida cities are on the list because of their beaches, theme parks, and cruise ports. Other top destinations include New York, California, Hawaii, and Las Vegas. Internationally, Europe and the Caribbean dominate the list thanks to their beach resorts, tourist attractions, and river cruises. The top Thanksgiving destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data from Tuesday, November 26 to Monday, December 2.

AAA’s Road Trip Tips

• Get a full vehicle inspection before setting out on your trip.
• Leave early and allow extra time to get to your destination, so you are not in a rush.
• Identify alternate routes in case you encounter congestion or road closures.
• Avoid distractions while driving. Program your GPS before your drive.
• Ensure everyone in the vehicle wears their seatbelt.
• Never drive impaired.

AAA’s Air Travel Tips

• Check-in early online.
• Monitor your flight status using your air carrier’s mobile app.
• Arrive 2-3 hours before scheduled departure.
• Pack medications and an extra set of clothes in your carry-on bag, just in case your flight is delayed or cancelled.

Tips for Air Travelers who Have Not Booked their Flight Yet:

• Book a flight that leaves early in the day. Flights in the afternoon and evening are more susceptible to delays and cancellations.
• Book a direct flight. Otherwise, build in extra time between connections, in case your first flight is delayed.
• Consider traveling on Thanksgiving Day. This could offer the best combination of availability and price.

“It’s not too late to purchase travel insurance, which can be extremely valuable for air travelers,” Haas said. “There are policies that can provide compensation for flight delays for as little as three hours. And if a flight is cancelled, passengers can receive compensation for covered out-of-pocket expenses.”

AAA Reminds Drivers to ‘Move Over for Me’

With more people sharing the roads, the danger is multiplied for those on the roadside. AAA reminds motorists to slow down and move over for first responders, tow trucks, and any motorist with a disabled vehicle on the side of the road.

“We want to make sure all holiday travelers, tow truck drivers and first responders make it home safely this Thanksgiving,” said Adrienne Woodland, spokeswoman, AAA – The Auto Club Group. “All drivers can help by moving over for flashing lights, whether it’s a tow truck or a disabled vehicle with its hazard lights on. Even if it adds a few minutes to your commute, that small gesture could save a life.”

Holiday Forecast Methodology

Travel Forecast 

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000. 

Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/Monitor^SM. The PERFORMANCE/Monitor^SM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of October 7, 2024.

Because AAA forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

*Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Period

For this forecast, the Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as the seven-day period from Tuesday, November 26 to Monday, December 2. This is the first year the Thanksgiving forecast is a longer timeframe to include the Tuesday before the holiday and the Monday after. Historically, AAA only looked at Wednesday through Sunday.

About S&P Global 
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses, and individuals with the right data, expertise, and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges, and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com. 

About DKSA 

DK SHIFFLET boasts the industry’s most complete database on U.S. resident travel both in the U.S. and worldwide. Data is collected monthly from a U.S. representative sample, adding over 60,000 traveling households annually, and is used daily by leading travel organizations and their strategic planning groups. DK SHIFFLET is an MMGY Global company. 

About INRIX   

Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com. 

About AAA - The Auto Club Group

The Auto Club Group (ACG) is the second largest AAA club in North America with more than 13 million members across 14 U.S. states and two U.S. territories. ACG and its affiliates provide members with roadside assistance, insurance products, banking and financial services, travel offerings and more. ACG belongs to the national AAA federation with more than 64 million members in the United States and Canada. AAA’s mission is to protect and advance freedom of mobility and improve traffic safety. For more information, get the AAA Mobile app, visit AAA.com, and follow us on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn.