This year’s Independence Day forecast will set new records

DEARBORN, Mich., (June 20, 2024) – AAA projects Independence Day travelers will set new records both nationwide and in Michigan. More than 70.9 million people around the U.S. are expected to travel 50 miles or more away from home. More than 2.6 million of those will be Michigan residents.

“The summer travel season is off to a hot start and we expect to set new travel records on the road and in the sky during the week of Independence Day,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “There will be 3.5 million more travelers than last year.  That means even more people at airports and popular attractions like beaches, lakes, and theme parks.”

Independence Day Holiday Travel Period

AAA’s Independence Day travel forecast measures domestic trips of 50 miles or more during a 9-day period from Saturday, June 29 to Sunday, July 7.

Economic trends influencing the travel forecast

Despite concerns about inflation, total travel is increasing on growth in consumer confidence, wages, and continued strength in consumer spending.

• Consumers are expected to increase spending by 5.5% compared to a year ago.
• Real GDP growth will remain modest, rising by 2.5% from last year.
• After falling steadily since January, consumer confidence moved up in May.
• Michigan gas prices for May averaged $3.62, $0.14 higher than a year ago.

Road Travel

AAA projects a record 60.6 million people will travel by car over Independence Day week – that’s an additional 2.8 million travelers compared to last year. This year’s number also surpasses 2019 when 55.3 million people traveled by car over July 4^th week.

Meanwhile, road travel in Michigan will set a record for the second consecutive year. More than 2.3 million Michiganders are expected to take a road trip. That’s nearly 117,000 more than last year.

“Road travelers should prepare for congestion in the afternoon and evening hours, particularly near larger metro areas, theme parks and popular attractions,” said Adrienne Woodland, spokeswoman, AAA – The Auto Club Group. “With so many people on the road it’s important to be patient, minimize distractions while driving, and move over for people on the roadside.”

Gas Prices

Michigan drivers are currently paying slightly more on gasoline than they did last Independence Day, when the state average was $3.52. Gas prices have been moving lower as of late. However, that downward trend could reverse course if oil prices rise because of geopolitical tensions or a hurricane that threatens oil rigs and refineries along the Gulf of Mexico.

Air Travel

The number of domestic air travelers is also expected to set a record. Nationally, AAA projects 5.74 million people will fly to their July 4^th destinations. That’s an increase of nearly 7% compared to last year and a 12% increase over 2019.

AAA booking data shows domestic airfare is 2% cheaper this Independence Day week compared to last year, and the average price for a domestic roundtrip ticket is $800. Airports will be packed throughout the week. AAA recommends arriving 2 hours early, reserving parking ahead of time, and traveling with carry-on luggage versus checked bags to save time and money.

Other Modes of Transportation

More than 4.6 million people are expected to travel by other modes of transportation, including buses, cruises, and trains. This category is seeing an increase of 9% compared to last year, but this year’s number is shy of 2019’s figure of 4.79 million.

“Cruising continues experiencing remarkable growth,” Haas said. “This time of year, Alaska cruises are in high demand, making Seattle and Anchorage top domestic destinations. Cruise travelers are also finding deals this summer. With new ships coming onto the market – and going for a premium – working with a Travel Advisor is a great way to ensure you’re getting the best value for your vacation. Travel Advisors are also able to help you choose a travel insurance policy that protects you and your investment for the impact of unexpected events before and during your trip.”

Best and Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, says the worst times to travel by car before and on July 4^th are between 2pm and 7pm. Drivers should hit the road in the morning, and travelers returning on Monday, July 8^th should avoid rush hour traffic in the morning and afternoon.

“Drivers in large metro areas can expect the worst traffic delays on Wednesday, July 3^rd, as they leave town, and Sunday, July 7th, as they return,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Road trips over the holiday week could take up to 67% longer than normal. Travelers should monitor 511 services, local news stations, and traffic apps for up-to-the-minute road conditions.”

Please note that the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located.

For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.

Source: INRIX

Source: INRIX

Top Destinations

This July 4^th week, travelers are cooling off in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska – and by the ocean! Seattle, Vancouver, and Anchorage are top destinations because of the popularity of Alaska cruises this time of year. Beaches in South Florida, Honolulu, Punta Cana, and Barcelona are in high demand. Historical sites in European cities like London, Rome, Dublin, Paris, and Athens are also popular. The top 10 domestic and international destinations below are based on AAA booking data.

Family Road Trip Checklist

With road trips expected to set a new record this July 4^th week, AAA teamed up with Chicco to share safety tips for families with small children.

• Check car seat fit. Before you hit the road, check your child’s weight and height to ensure they’re in the right seat and mode of use – especially when it comes to transitioning from rear to forward-facing. Children should remain rear-facing as long as possible for better protection of their head, neck, and spine in the event of a crash. If you are unsure which car seat is best for your child, Chicco offers a car seat comparison guide.

• Double check car seat installation. Even if your car seat is already installed in the car, it’s worth checking everything is safe and secure. An easy at-home way to do this is with the “inch test.” Simply grab the seat at the car seat belt path and pull side to side and front to back. If it moves more than one inch in any direction, uninstall and start over until a secure fit is achieved. For any questions, utilize the car seat manual, QR codes, or online resources like those offered by Chicco.
• Secure loose items in the car. Take time to organize and clean up your car before hitting the road. Storage organizers that secure to the back of the driver and passenger seats are simple solutions to make sure everything has a spot, especially loose items that can become projectiles in case of a sudden stop.

• Be prepared for the unexpected. Pack an emergency kit with first-aid supplies, water, snacks, blankets, jumper cables, and flares. Make sure your phone is fully charged – and keep a charger in the car – to call AAA or request roadside assistance 

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