Holiday travel sets another record despite cooling growth

DEARBORN, Mich., (June 17, 2026) — AAA projects more than 2.6 million Michiganders will travel at least 50 miles from home for the Independence Day holiday travel period, which runs from Saturday, June 27 through Sunday, July 5. Most travelers will take to the road, with more than 2 million Michiganders driving to their destinations. Air travel is softening slightly, while cruising and other modes of transportation see the strongest growth.

While this year’s increase is modest compared to recent gains, it still sets a record for Fourth of July travel in Michigan, as strong consumer demand continues to offset higher travel costs.

“For many families, traveling for Independence Day isn’t just a trip, it’s a tradition,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “Vacations are one category where consumers are still willing to spend, even if that means cutting back on something else. With an extended holiday travel period, we expect busy roads, steady demand for flights, and continued interest in cruises across many parts of the country.”

Rather than staying home, many travelers are choosing to offset higher travel costs by:

• Taking shorter vacations
• Choosing destinations closer to home
• Closely comparing the cost of driving vs flying
• Planning a cruise or all-inclusive resort where costs are more defined
• Cutting back on extras like eating out and souvenirs

This flexibility helps sustain overall travel volume, even when prices increase. For those who haven’t finalized their plans, it’s not too late to work with a travel agent to find last-minute options or savings.

National Travel Figures are Slightly Higher Than Last Year

Florida’s growth reflects a broader national trend. AAA projects 72.2 million Americans to travel during the Independence Day holiday period, setting another record despite a slower pace of growth. This year’s projection is only a half-percent increase from last year as rising inflationary pressures take a toll.

Independence Day Travelers by Mode of Transportation

By Car: AAA projects 61.4 million people will travel by car over July 4^th week, nearly the same number as last year when 61.3 million travelers took road trips. 85% of Americans traveling for Independence Day are expected to drive to their destinations.

Gas Prices: Given the recent volatility in gas prices, it’s too early to know what drivers should expect to pay at the pump. The Michigan state average is around $4.15 per gallon. Last year, the state average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.17. In 2022, the Michigan state average was $4.94 on Independence Day. Visit GasPrices.AAA.com to view daily gas price averages.

“Even with ongoing volatility at the pump, being flexible and planning ahead can help drivers manage fuel costs this Independence Day,” said Adrienne Woodland, spokesperson for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “Using AAA’s gas cost calculator and mapping out fill-ups in advance with AAA’s mobile app can help drivers stretch their travel budget.”

By Air: More than 5.8 million travelers will take domestic flights over the July 4^th week, a 0.2% increase over last year. Air travelers account for 8% of holiday travelers. According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their Independence Day trips, round-trip domestic flights to top destinations like Chicago and Denver are 5% more expensive. Domestic flights overall are averaging about $830 a ticket.

By Other Modes: Travel by other modes is seeing the biggest year-over-year growth compared to car and air travel. AAA projects 4.93 million Americans will take buses, trains, and cruises over Independence Day week, a 5.3% increase from last year. This year is also expected to surpass 2019’s figure of 4.79 million travelers, due in large part to the post-COVID cruising boom. Travelers are drawn to cruise vacations because they know how much the trip will cost upfront, and the ship offers all-inclusive dining, various entertainment options, and multiple destinations.

Car Rentals: For travelers renting cars over July 4^th, AAA car rental partner Hertz expects Thursday, July 2 to be the busiest pickup day. Hertz says Orlando, Denver, Boston, Los Angeles, and New York City are the cities with the highest demand based on advanced bookings. According to AAA booking data, domestic car rentals are 10% more expensive this holiday week compared to last year. AAA members receive discounted car rental rates when booking with Hertz.

AAA’s Top Independence Day Destinations

Travelers who booked their trips with AAA are heading to major U.S. cities over July 4^th week and flying internationally to Canada and Europe. AAA travel agents have seen a surge in demand for cruises to Alaska, which is why Seattle, Anchorage, and Fairbanks are all top domestic destinations. Independence Day fireworks and festivities in New York, Chicago, and Boston also draw big crowds. Florida ranks high thanks to theme parks, beaches, and cruise ports. On the international side, Vancouver tops the list, followed by major European cities like Rome, Dublin, Paris, and London.

Summer Safety on the Road

Impaired Driving: July 4^th week can be especially dangerous on the road with more teen drivers behind the wheel and a rise in impaired driving due to holiday festivities. That’s why AAA is urging drivers to commit to 100 Days of Safe Driving this summer. According to AAA crash data analysis, nearly one in three summertime traffic deaths involves an impaired driver. AAA, in partnership with MADD, reminds anyone who plans to drink or use impairing substances to arrange a sober ride before going out. The Auto Club Group will provide its Tow to Go program in select states from 6 pm Friday, July 3^rd to 6 am Monday, July 6^th.

AAA Roadside Response: Drivers preparing to take road trips should also prioritize car maintenance and stay on top of routine oil changes, plus check battery condition and tire pressure. Last year, AAA responded to more than 687,000 roadside assistance calls during Independence Day week. Half of those required towing services, and nearly 30% of those calls were for battery replacement and flat tires. Many of these issues could be prevented with a pre-trip inspection. Visit AAA.com/AutoRepair to find a AAA-Approved Auto Repair Facility near you.

Slow Down Move Over: While on the road, AAA reminds drivers to Slow Down, Move Over when approaching emergency responders and stranded motorists on the side of the road. Nationwide, nearly 350 people are struck and killed while outside a disabled vehicle each year. Drivers can save lives if they make it a priority to move over for all vehicles on the roadside, regardless of whether it is a tow provider with flashing lights or a driver of a disabled vehicle with its hazard lights on.

Best/Worst Times to Drive

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, says the second weekend of the holiday period will be the busiest on the roads, starting Thursday, July 2. But in certain metros, like Boston, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia, peak congestion is expected Saturday, June 27. Drivers looking to avoid the heaviest traffic should leave early in the day or consider traveling on Monday or Tuesday.

The times listed below are for the metro area’s time zone. For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.

SOURCE: INRIX

Independence Day Holiday Travel Period

AAA’s Independence Day holiday travel period spans nine days and includes two weekends. This year, the dates range from Saturday, June 27 to Sunday, July 5. Historically, this holiday period included only one weekend. The expanded travel window was instituted starting in 2024, with historical results calculated back to 2019 using the new nine-day period.  

Holiday Travel Forecast Methodology

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken. 

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was finalized the week of May 18, 2026.

Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

INRIX Methodology

INRIX blends statistically grounded models with real-world road behavior to forecast travel conditions on the most heavily traveled routes across the U.S. during peak holiday periods. INRIX’s holiday traffic forecast combines pre-selected high-impact travel routes, rich multi-source traffic data, and a statistically robust linear regression model to generate detailed, time-specific travel delay predictions. INRIX’s data sources include a wide array of vehicle-based and infrastructure-based inputs. These include connected vehicle GPS data, mobile apps and navigation services, roadside sensors and cameras, and commercial fleet telematics. With expansive coverage, high temporal resolution, and historical context, this forecasting process provides essential insights for travelers, media, and agencies alike.

About AAA – The Auto Club Group

The Auto Club Group (ACG), named a 2026 Forbes Most Trusted Company in America, is the second-largest AAA club in North America, with more than 13 million members across 14 U.S. states and two U.S. territories. ACG and its affiliates provide members with roadside assistance, insurance products, financial services, travel offerings and more. ACG is part of the national AAA federation, which serves more than 66 million members across the United States and Canada. AAA’s mission is to protect and advance freedom of mobility and improve traffic safety. For more information, download the AAA Mobile app, visit AAA.com, and follow us on social media.

About S&P Global Market Intelligence

At S&P Global Market Intelligence, we understand the importance of accurate, deep and insightful information. Our team of experts delivers unrivaled insights and leading data and technology solutions, partnering with customers to expand their perspective, operate with confidence, and make decisions with conviction. S&P Global Market Intelligence is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world’s foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world’s leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit spglobal.com/marketintelligence.

About MMGY

MMGY Global is the world’s leading integrated marketing firm specializing in the travel, hospitality, and lifestyle industries. With operating brands around the world, the award-winning organization maintains a global communications practice in all marketing channels, serving many of the world’s premier travel and tourism brands. As a company dedicated to the travel industry, MMGY Global strives to create a connected, inclusive, and peaceful world by promoting travel as a cultural bridge of understanding. For more information, visit www.mmgyglobal.com.

About INRIX   

Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com. 

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