But the Job Market Remains Hot
Initial unemployment claims rose by 7K to 225K in the week ending November 5. The 4-week moving average of initial claims, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, was unchanged at 219K ending the same week. The low level of initial claims indicates that few companies are laying-off workers with demand still strong and the difficulty of hiring new workers.
The recent announcement of large layoffs by a growing number of tech companies will show up in higher unemployment claims over the next several months. A rise in weekly initial claims to over 250K will likely be the result, after we get past the temporary rise in holiday hiring, showing some cooling-off in the hot labor market in early 2023.
The total number of unemployed workers collecting unemployment payments, referred to as continuing claims, rose by 6K to 1.493 million in the week ending October 29, and the 4-week moving average rose by 32K to 1.450 million ending in the same week. Continuing claims have moved up over the past four weeks but remain fairly low indicating that workers who get laid-off can quickly find another job in the still tight job market. The insured unemployment rate held steady at a very low 1.0% in the week ending October 29.
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