Concerns over flight cancellations could push more travelers to hit the road

DEARBORN, Mich., (November 17, 2025) — AAA projects that 2.6 million Michiganders will travel at least 50 miles from home during the Thanksgiving holiday period, which runs from Tuesday, November 25 to Monday, December 1. This marks a 1.4% increase over last year and sets a new record for Thanksgiving travel in the Great Lakes State.

• Nationwide, AAA expects 81.8 million Americans to travel for Thanksgiving. That’s an increase of 1.6 million travelers compared to 2024. Thanksgiving remains the busiest travel holiday of the year, surpassing both Memorial Day and Independence Day.

  Thanksgiving Michigan Travelers

  • Total Travelers: 2,605,426 (+1.4%)
  • By Car: 2,300,671 (+1%)
  • By Air: 224,600
  • By Other Modes (bus, train, cruise): 80,155 (+8.2%)

  “Michigan residents are embracing the Thanksgiving spirit with record-breaking travel plans this year,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “Whether it’s driving across the state or flying across the country, people are making time to connect with loved ones. Even with concerns about flight cancellations, travelers are showing flexibility and resilience and relying most on driving.”

  Traveling By Car

  AAA projects that nearly 73 million Americans will travel by car this Thanksgiving, representing almost 90% of all holiday travelers. In Michigan, more than 2.3 million residents will drive to their destinations. That number could rise if travelers opt to avoid potential flight disruptions.

  Rental Cars: Hertz, AAA’s car rental partner, reports that Wednesday will be the busiest day for vehicle pick-ups. The top 5 markets with the highest demand are Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Miami, and Newark. Good news for renters: domestic car rental rates are down 15% compared to last year.

  Gas Prices: Drivers can expect gas prices similar to last Thanksgiving, when the national average was $3.06 per gallon. The state average was $3.02. Currently, Michigan drivers are finding an average price of $3.02. AAA recommends filling up the night before travel and checking your battery and tire pressure. Last year, AAA responded to nearly 600,000 roadside assistance calls nationwide, many for dead batteries, flat tires, and empty fuel tanks.

  Impaired Driving: AAA and MADD urge travelers to plan ahead and avoid impaired driving. Between 2019 and 2023, 868 people died in drunk-driving crashes during Thanksgiving, accounting for 35% of all traffic fatalities during the holiday period.

  Traveling By Air

  AAA expects 6 million Americans to fly domestically this Thanksgiving, a 2% increase from 2024. In Michigan, nearly 225,000 residents will take to the skies. Given recent flight reductions, that number could end up being lower as flights get cancelled or travelers make other plans.

  Airfares: Domestic airfares are similar to last year, averaging $700 for a round-trip. Flying on Thanksgiving Day can offer savings but return flights on Sunday and Monday tend to be the most expensive. Some travelers are adjusting their schedules to avoid peak travel days.

  “With recent flight reductions and the potential for last-minute cancellations, we encourage air travelers to build flexibility into their plans,” Haas continued. “Consider flying on less busy days, booking early morning departures when delays are less likely, and having a backup plan in case your flight is disrupted. Whether that means adjusting your return date or being ready to drive, a little preparation can go a long way in helping you navigate the unexpected.”

  By Other Modes

  Travel by bus, train, and cruise is expected to rise 8.5% nationally, reaching nearly 2.5 million travelers. In Michigan, more than 80,000 residents will travel by these modes. Cruise travel continues to surge, with AAA projecting 20.7 million U.S. cruise passengers in 2025 and 21.7 million in 2026. Thanksgiving cruises to the Caribbean are especially popular for their warm weather and all-inclusive appeal.

  Top Thanksgiving Destinations

  The top holiday destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data for the Thanksgiving travel period. Florida is the most popular domestic destination, thanks to the area’s theme parks and cruise ports. The international list is a mix of Europe, the Caribbean, and Australia for its warm spring weather this time of year. 

  DOMESTIC	INTERNATIONAL
  ORLANDO, FL	PARIS, FRANCE
  FORT LAUDERDALE, FL	AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
  MIAMI, FL	VIENNA, AUSTRIA
  ANAHEIM/LOS ANGELES, CA	CANCUN, MEXICO
  TAMPA, FL	PUNTA CANA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
  NEW YORK, NY	BASEL, SWITZERLAND
  SAN FRANCISCO, CA	SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA
  HONOLULU, HI	BARCELONA, SPAIN
  LAS VEGAS, NV	BUDAPEST, HUNGARY
  ATLANTA, GA	ORANJESTAD, ARUBA

   

  Best/Worst Times to Drive

  According to INRIX, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons will be the most congested travel times before Thanksgiving. Heavy traffic is expected all day Sunday as travelers return home. AAA recommends leaving early and staying alert for construction, crashes, or weather delays. Remember to Slow Down and Move Over for emergency responders and stopped vehicles.

  Best and Worst Times to Drive
  Date	Worst Travel Time	Best Travel Time
  Tuesday, Nov 25	12:00 PM – 9:00 PM	Before 12:00 PM
  Wednesday, Nov 26	11:00 AM – 8:00 PM	Before 11:00 AM
  Thursday, Nov 27	Minimal Traffic Impact Expected
  Friday, Nov 28	1:00 PM – 7:00 PM	Before 11:00 AM
  Saturday, Nov 29	1:00 PM – 8:00 PM	Before 10:00 AM
  Sunday, Nov 30	11:00 AM – 8:00 PM	Before 11:00 AM
  Monday, Dec 1	12:00 PM – 8:00 PM	After 8:00 PM

   

  Peak Congestion by Metro
  Metro	Route	Peak Congestion Period	Est. Travel Time	Increase Compared to Typical
  Atlanta	Atlanta to Savannah   via I-16 E	Sunday   3:30 PM	5 hour 16 minutes	53%
  Boston	Boston to Hyannis   via Pilgrims Hwy S	Thursday   11:45 AM	2 hour 0 minutes	108%
  Chicago	Indianapolis to Chicago   via I-65 N	Sunday   3:45 PM	4 hour 8 minutes	57%
  Denver	Pueblo to Denver   via I-25 N	Tuesday   5:30 PM	2 hour 60 minutes	64%
  Detroit	Kalamazoo to Detroit   via I-94 E	Tuesday   4:30 PM	2 hour 54 minutes	48%
  Houston	Galveston to Houston   via I-45 N	Tuesday   5:30 PM	1 hour 15 minutes	47%
  Los Angeles	Los Angeles to Bakersfield   via I-5 N	Wednesday   7:45 PM	4 hour 10 minutes	147%
  Minneapolis	Eau Claire to Minneapolis   via I-94 W	Sunday   4:45 PM	1 hour 49 minutes	53%
  New York	New York to Hamptons   via Long Island Expy E	Tuesday   4:30 PM	4 hour 8 minutes	163%
  Philadelphia	Philadelphia to Baltimore/DC   via I-95 S	Sunday   2:15 PM	2 hour 38 minutes	85%
  Portland	Portland to Eugene   via I-5 S	Friday   4:00 PM	2 hour 43 minutes	61%
  San Diego	San Diego to Palm Springs   via I-15 N	Wednesday   5:00 PM	4 hour 49 minutes	79%
  San Francisco	San Francisco to Santa Rosa   via US-101 N	Tuesday   7:15 PM	2 hour 34 minutes	114%
  Seattle	Seattle to Bellingham   via I-5 N	Tuesday   6:45 PM	3 hour 22 minutes	77%
  Tampa	Tampa to Orlando   via I-4 E	Friday   2:45 PM	2 hour 52 minutes	85%
  Washington, DC	Washington, DC to Baltimore   via Balt/Wash Pkwy N	Tuesday   4:30 PM	1 hour 50 minutes	166%

   

   

  Holiday Travel Forecast Methodology  

  In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000. 

  Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.   

  The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was finalized the week of October 20, 2025. 

  Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors. 

  INRIX Methodology 

  INRIX blends statistically grounded models with real-world road behavior to forecast travel conditions on the most heavily traveled routes across the U.S. during peak holiday periods. INRIX’s holiday traffic forecast combines pre-selected high-impact travel routes, rich multi-source traffic data, and a statistically robust linear regression model to generate detailed, time-specific travel delay predictions. INRIX’s data sources include a wide array of vehicle-based and infrastructure-based inputs. These include connected vehicle GPS data, mobile apps and navigation services, roadside sensors and cameras, and commercial fleet telematics. With expansive coverage, high temporal resolution, and historical context, this forecasting process provides essential insights for travelers, media, and agencies alike. 

  Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Period  

  The Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as the seven-day period from Tuesday, November 25 to Monday, December 1, 2025. This Thanksgiving travel window was instituted starting in 2024. Historical results were calculated dating back to 2019 using the same seven-day period.  

  About S&P Global 

  S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses, and individuals with the right data, expertise, and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges, and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.  

  About MMGY 

  MMGY Global is the world’s leading integrated marketing firm specializing in the travel, hospitality, and lifestyle industries. With operating brands around the world, the award-winning organization maintains a global communications practice in all marketing channels, serving many of the world’s premier travel and tourism brands. As a company dedicated to the travel industry, MMGY Global strives to create a connected, inclusive, and peaceful world by promoting travel as a cultural bridge of understanding. For more information, visit www.mmgyglobal.com. 

  About INRIX    

  Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.  

  About AAA – The Auto Club Group

  The Auto Club Group (ACG) is the second largest AAA club in North America with more than 13 million members across 14 U.S. states and two U.S. territories. ACG and its affiliates provide members with roadside assistance, insurance products, financial services, travel offerings and more. ACG belongs to the national AAA federation with more than 65 million members in the United States and Canada. AAA’s mission is to protect and advance freedom of mobility and improve traffic safety. For more information, get the AAA Mobile app, visit AAA.com, and follow us on social media.